Apartment and villa sales fell 47 percent year on year (compared with the same period a year earlier) to 10,066 transactions. Same-homes prices excluding the leading contributor fell 5.42 percent.
Apartment and villa sales fell 47 percent to 10,066 transactions in September 2026, while same-homes prices excluding the leading contributor fell 5.42 percent.
Apartment and villa sales
10,066
down 47.0% against September 2025down 9.0% against August 2026
Apartments
8,638 sales
down 48.3% against September 2025, from 16,715
Villas
1,428 sales
down 36.8% against September 2025, from 2,261
First sales (primary)
6,490 sales
down 54.8% against September 2025, from 14,347
Resales (secondary)
3,576 sales
down 22.7% against September 2025, from 4,626
- First sales 6,490, 64.5%
- Resales 3,576, 35.5%
- Off plan 7,096, 70.5%
- Ready 2,970, 29.5%
Off plan was 78.6% in September 2025
Based on 10,066 recorded sales, September 2026. September 2026 as recorded by 13 October 2026. Sale records had not arrived since 5 October 2026, 8 days before this reading, a longer pause than any earlier one (the longest was 6 days). Comparisons use earlier months as recorded now.
Apartment and villa sales fell 47 percent in number to 10,066 apartment and villa sales. Total value fell 48.3 percent to AED 23.34 billion. Same-homes prices excluding the leading contributor fell 5.42 percent. Headline price per square foot fell 1.2 percent to AED 1,697.
The market in September 2026
10 measures of September 2026 at a glance
| Measure | This month | Versus a year ago | Versus last month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apartment and villa sales | 10,066 | down 47.0% | down 9.0% |
| Total value | AED 23.34 billion | down 48.3% | down 2.7% |
| Median price per square foot | AED 1,697 | down 1.2% | down 1.0% |
| Same homes, excluding the leading contributor | down 5.42% | already mix adjusted | already mix adjusted |
| Same homes, all | down 1.15% | already mix adjusted | already mix adjusted |
| Median size sold | 807 sq ft | up 0.5% | up 7.3% |
| Off plan share of sales | 70.5% | down 8.1 pts | down 2.5 pts |
| Apartment and villa first sales (primary) | 6,490 | down 54.8% | down 15.5% |
| Apartment and villa resales (secondary) | 3,576 | down 22.7% | up 5.9% |
| Sales above USD 10 million | 20 | down 44.4% |
A blank entry: not available for this period.
Same-homes prices compare the same types and sizes of home, sold the same way, with a year earlier, so a change in what sold cannot move them. Median means the middle sale: half sold for more and half for less. Off plan means sold before the home is built.
The register also recorded instalment sales (unclassified): 3 in September 2025, and none in September 2026.
Apartments sold off plan were 57.2 percent of last year's value and 72.2 percent of the fall. Without them, value fell 31.3 percent.
Why it may have moved. 5 things happened at once that may each explain part of this move. Each is shown in the section whose figures it explains: 2 under Residential and 3 under Apartment.
Why it may have moved. 5 things happened at once that may each explain part of this move. Each is shown in the section whose figures it explains: 2 under Residential and 3 under Apartment.Sales
11,013 sales of every type in every use in September 2026. Median price AED 1,714 per square foot.
- Against September 2025down 44.9% down 0.7%
- Against August 2026down 7.4% down 0.4%
First sales
7,048 sales
down 52.5% against September 2025, from 14,827
Resales
3,965 sales
down 23.2% against September 2025, from 5,164
- First sales 7,048, 64.0%
- Resales 3,965, 36.0%
September 2026 · month
- What
- Median residential sales price and rate by area. Shown for: Prices ran ahead of rents.
- How
- Read from property transactions registered in Dubai since 2008 and in Abu Dhabi since 2019, one row per transaction. Each figure rests on at least 30 records. Dubai records only.
- Output
- 53 figures in AED per sq ft, each printed with its count; 11 figures resting on fewer than 30 records are left out. The 6 groups with the most records are drawn; the other 47 share one bar (9,148 records), drawn at the middle of their own figures.
Based on 13,821 records, September 2026, as recorded by 13 October 2026
Show the figures behind this chart
| Group | Median residential sales price and rate by area | Records |
|---|---|---|
| Al Barsha South Fourth | 1,321 | 1,089 |
| Madinat Al Mataar | 1,667 | 885 |
| Wadi Al Safa 3 | 1,392 | 794 |
| Jabal Ali First | 1,383 | 738 |
| Jabal Ali Industrial Second | 1,742 | 595 |
| Business Bay | 1,864 | 572 |
| The other 47 | 1,666 | 9,148 |
Based on 13,821 records, September 2026, as recorded by 13 October 2026
Source: property transactions registered in Dubai since 2008 and in Abu Dhabi since 2019, one row per transaction, compiled by PropertyDynamix
What might explain it.
- The month had 22 working days against 21 the month before. About 4.8 percent of any change in the raw count is the calendar rather than the market.
Residential
10,683 sales of every type registered for Residential use in September 2026. Median price AED 1,711 per square foot.
- Against September 2025down 45.2% down 0.7%
- Against August 2026down 8.3% down 0.5%
First sales
6,939 sales
down 52.6% against September 2025, from 14,650
Resales
3,744 sales
down 22.8% against September 2025, from 4,851
- First sales 6,939, 65.0%
- Resales 3,744, 35.0%
Show the figures behind this chart
| Measure | Change on the year |
|---|---|
| Headline median | -1.2% |
| Same homes, all | -1.15% |
| Same homes, excluding the leading contributor | -5.42% |
Dubai Land Department registrations. Same-homes figures are already mix adjusted, so a change in what sold cannot move them.
Show the figures behind this chart
| Month | Off plan share of sales |
|---|---|
| Sep-25 | 78.6% |
| Oct-25 | 73.8% |
| Nov-25 | 74.2% |
| Dec-25 | 75.7% |
| Jan-26 | 73.4% |
| Feb-26 | 71.1% |
| Mar-26 | 77.8% |
| Apr-26 | 79.1% |
| May-26 | 76.3% |
| Jun-26 | 75.7% |
| Jul-26 | 73.2% |
| Aug-26 | 73% |
| Sep-26 | 70.5% |
Dubai Land Department registrations. Figures for earlier months can change as late registrations arrive; each edition prints what changed.
Show the figures behind this chart
| Month | Sales | Median price per square foot |
|---|---|---|
| Sep-25 | 18,976 | AED 1,717 |
| Oct-25 | 18,262 | AED 1,710 |
| Nov-25 | 17,386 | AED 1,769 |
| Dec-25 | 17,778 | AED 1,811 |
| Jan-26 | 15,298 | AED 1,812 |
| Feb-26 | 15,355 | AED 1,764 |
| Mar-26 | 12,930 | AED 1,740 |
| Apr-26 | 12,256 | AED 1,851 |
| May-26 | 9,173 | AED 1,691 |
| Jun-26 | 12,229 | AED 1,701 |
| Jul-26 | 12,505 | AED 1,712 |
| Aug-26 | 11,056 | AED 1,714 |
| Sep-26 | 10,066 | AED 1,697 |
Dubai Land Department registrations. Figures for earlier months can change as late registrations arrive; each edition prints what changed.
These figures count apartments and villas only, so they differ from the register's Residential line.
Apartments (built area)
| Segment | Sales | Price per square foot a year ago | Price per square foot now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Studio apartment | 2,732 | 1,845 | 1,705 | down 7.6% |
| 1-bedroom apartment | 3,542 | 1,633 | 1,660 | up 1.6% |
| 2-bedroom apartment | 1,826 | 1,843 | 1,765 | down 4.2% |
| 3-bedroom apartment | 464 | 2,294 | 1,900 | down 17.2% |
| 4-bedroom apartment | 69 | 2,577 | 2,774 | up 7.6% |
Villas (plot area)
| Segment | Sales | Price per square foot a year ago | Price per square foot now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-bedroom villa | 53 | 1,345 | 1,328 | down 1.3% |
| 3-bedroom villa | 397 | 1,523 | 1,535 | up 0.8% |
| 4-bedroom villa | 574 | 1,661 | 1,696 | up 2.1% |
| 5-bedroom villa | 306 | 1,468 | 1,777 | up 21.1% |
| 6-bedroom villa | 51 | 1,478 | 1,868 | up 26.3% |
Apartment communities (built area)
| Community | Sales | Price per square foot | On the year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Maritime City (Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah) | 114 | 3,202 | up 4.8% |
| Meydan Racecourse Community (Nad Al Shiba First) | 66 | 3,153 | up 33.2% |
| Business Park (Zaabeel Second) | 31 | 3,145 | up 7.3% |
| Al Wasl | 61 | 3,102 | down 0.1% |
Villa communities (plot area)
| Community | Sales | Price per square foot | On the year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meydan Racecourse Community (Nad Al Shiba First) | 30 | 2,258 | down 2.1% |
| The Valley (Al Yufrah 1) | 199 | 2,044 | up 36.7% |
| Dubai Sports City (Al Hebiah Fourth) | 40 | 2,013 | down 3.0% |
| Al Aryam (Al Yelayiss 1) | 113 | 1,796 | up 6.5% |
| Off plan | This month | A year ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share of sales, by count | 70.5% | 78.6% | down 8.1 pts |
| Share of value | 63.8% | 76.0% | down 12.2 pts |
| Off plan deals | 7,096 |
A blank entry: not available for this period.
Communities by value transacted (apartments and villas together)
| Community | Sales | Value | Share of value | Median price per square foot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Valley (Al Yufrah 1) | 281 | AED 1.38 billion | 5.9% | 1,930 |
| Palm Jumeirah | 67 | AED 1.36 billion | 5.8% | 3,235 |
| Dubai World Central (Madinat Al Mataar) | 892 | AED 1.17 billion | 5.0% | 1,688 |
| Dubai Hills Estate (Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid) | 166 | AED 1.09 billion | 4.7% | 2,406 |
| Dubai Creek Harbour (Al Khairan First) | 386 | AED 1.08 billion | 4.6% | 2,561 |
| Jabal Ali First | 486 | AED 1.02 billion | 4.4% | 1,689 |
| Jumeirah Village Circle (Al Barsha South Fourth) | 787 | AED 0.85 billion | 3.6% | 1,424 |
| Dubai Land Residence Complex (Wadi Al Safa 5) | 455 | AED 0.81 billion | 3.5% | 1,416 |
Why residential sales may have moved.
Fewer sales and lower prices.
2 things happened at once that may each explain part of this move. 3 more are shown in other sections.
- New supply
Fewer new projects going on sale
This might be caused by fewer new projects going on sale (1).
It could be large enough for this move, and it points the same way the market moved.
How we knowHow we know
This might be caused by fewer new projects going on sale.
This may account for part of it, and so may other things
- Source
- Khaleej Times
- Tier
- Established press
- Happened
- Not recorded
- Reported
- 20 Aug 2026
- Read by us
- Not recorded
- Agreement
- 1 independent publisher
- What would change our mind
- The number of new projects going on sale was normal.
- Came before the move: Passed. Reported 1 month before the move, inside the 0 to 3 month window this kind of factor is expected to take. The order of events works.
- Pushes the way the market moved: Passed. The market moved down and this factor pushes the same way.
- Fits which side of the market moved: Not measured. This factor does not predict a particular shape for sales against prices, so there was nothing to compare.
- Hits the parts it should hit hardest: Not measured. This month's figures do not split the market by offplan, apartment, ready. We could not check whether it hit where it should.
- Large enough for a move this size: Passed. It can move the market by 40 percent at most; same-homes apartment and villa prices moved 1.15 percent, so it is large enough to matter.
- Has done this here before: Passed. We have no recorded case of this happening here before, so there is no track record either way. That is not evidence against it.
- Money from abroad
A weaker currency in buyers' home countries
This might be caused by a weaker currency in buyers' home countries (2).
Sales and prices moved as it predicts.
How we knowHow we know
This might be caused by a weaker currency in buyers' home countries.
This may account for part of it, and so may other things
- Source
- Khaleej Times
- Tier
- Established press
- Happened
- Not recorded
- Reported
- 4 Jun 2026
- Read by us
- Not recorded
- Agreement
- 1 independent publisher
- What would change our mind
- That nationality's share of buyers did not move.
- Came before the move: Passed. Reported 3 months before the move, inside the 1 to 12 month window this kind of factor is expected to take. The order of events works.
- Pushes the way the market moved: Passed. The market moved down and this factor pushes the same way.
- Fits which side of the market moved: Passed. Sales and prices together moved exactly the way this factor should move them (volume down, price down).
- Hits the parts it should hit hardest: Not measured. This month's figures do not split the market by cash, mortgage. We could not check whether it hit where it should.
- Large enough for a move this size: Not measured. How large a move this factor can produce depends on how far the factor itself moved. This month's reporting does not say. We could not check whether it is big enough.
- Has done this here before: Passed. We have no recorded case of this happening here before, so there is no track record either way. That is not evidence against it.
These may also have played a part.
- New supply
More completion delays
More completion delays (homes finishing later than scheduled) (3).
It was reported in time to play a part.
How we knowHow we know
More completion delays (homes finishing later than scheduled) is a possible factor.
This is possible and we cannot put a number on it
- Source
- Khaleej Times
- Tier
- Established press
- Happened
- Not recorded
- Reported
- 30 Jul 2026
- Read by us
- Not recorded
- Agreement
- 1 independent publisher
- What would change our mind
- Completions matched the schedule.
- Came before the move: Passed. Reported 2 months before the move, inside the 0 to 24 month window this kind of factor is expected to take. The order of events works.
- Pushes the way the market moved: Not measured. The reporting on this factor cuts both ways, so we could not say whether it pushed with the move or against it.
- Fits which side of the market moved: Not measured. This factor does not predict a particular shape for sales against prices, so there was nothing to compare.
- Hits the parts it should hit hardest: Not measured. This month's figures do not split the market by ready, plot. We could not check whether it hit where it should.
- Large enough for a move this size: Passed. It can move the market by 5 percent at most; same-homes apartment and villa prices moved 1.15 percent, so it is large enough to matter.
- Has done this here before: Passed. We have no recorded case of this happening here before, so there is no track record either way. That is not evidence against it.
- Money from abroad
People and money moving here from abroad
Wealthy households relocating to Dubai and buying homes (4).
It was reported in time to play a part.
How we knowHow we know
People and money moving here from abroad (wealthy households relocating to Dubai and buying homes) is a possible factor.
This is possible and we cannot put a number on it
- Source
- AGBI
- Tier
- Established press
- Happened
- Not recorded
- Reported
- 17 Aug 2026
- Read by us
- Not recorded
- Agreement
- 1 independent publisher
- What would change our mind
- The mix of buyer nationalities did not change.
- Came before the move: Passed. Reported 1 month before the move, inside the 0 to 18 month window this kind of factor is expected to take. The order of events works.
- Pushes the way the market moved: Not measured. The reporting on this factor cuts both ways, so we could not say whether it pushed with the move or against it.
- Fits which side of the market moved: Not measured. This factor does not predict a particular shape for sales against prices, so there was nothing to compare.
- Hits the parts it should hit hardest: Not measured. This month's figures do not split the market by cash, mortgage. We could not check whether it hit where it should.
- Large enough for a move this size: Passed. It can move the market by 30 percent at most; same-homes apartment and villa prices moved 1.15 percent, so it is large enough to matter.
- Has done this here before: Passed. We have no recorded case of this happening here before, so there is no track record either way. That is not evidence against it.
- New supply
More new homes finished at once
More new homes finished at once (3).
It was reported in time to play a part.
How we knowHow we know
More new homes finished at once is a possible factor.
This is possible and we cannot put a number on it
- Source
- Khaleej Times
- Tier
- Established press
- Happened
- Not recorded
- Reported
- 30 Jul 2026
- Read by us
- Not recorded
- Agreement
- 1 independent publisher
- What would change our mind
- Fewer homes stood empty.
- Came before the move: Passed. Reported 2 months before the move, inside the 0 to 12 month window this kind of factor is expected to take. The order of events works.
- Pushes the way the market moved: Not measured. The reporting on this factor cuts both ways, so we could not say whether it pushed with the move or against it.
- Fits which side of the market moved: Not measured. This factor does not predict a particular shape for sales against prices, so there was nothing to compare.
- Hits the parts it should hit hardest: Not measured. This month's figures do not split the market by apartment, ready, plot. We could not check whether it hit where it should.
- Large enough for a move this size: Not measured. How large a move this factor can produce depends on how far the factor itself moved. This month's reporting does not say. We could not check whether it is big enough.
- Has done this here before: Passed. We have no recorded case of this happening here before, so there is no track record either way. That is not evidence against it.
- Money from abroad
The region feeling less risky
The region feeling less risky (4).
It was reported in time to play a part.
How we knowHow we know
The region feeling less risky is a possible factor.
This is possible and we cannot put a number on it
- Source
- AGBI
- Tier
- Established press
- Happened
- Not recorded
- Reported
- 17 Aug 2026
- Read by us
- Not recorded
- Agreement
- 1 independent publisher
- What would change our mind
- Rents moved too (regional risk changes prices, not what tenants pay).
- Came before the move: Passed. Reported 1 month before the move, inside the 0 to 12 month window this kind of factor is expected to take. The order of events works.
- Pushes the way the market moved: Not measured. The reporting on this factor cuts both ways, so we could not say whether it pushed with the move or against it.
- Fits which side of the market moved: Not measured. This factor does not predict a particular shape for sales against prices, so there was nothing to compare.
- Hits the parts it should hit hardest: Not measured. This month's figures do not split the market by the parts this factor should and should not reach. We could not check whether it hit where it should.
- Large enough for a move this size: Not measured. How large a move this factor can produce depends on how far the factor itself moved. This month's reporting does not say. We could not check whether it is big enough.
- Has done this here before: Passed. We have no recorded case of this happening here before, so there is no track record either way. That is not evidence against it.
Apartment
8,638 sales of apartment property registered for Residential use in September 2026. Median price AED 1,702 per square foot.
- Against September 2025down 48.3% down 3.4%
- Against August 2026down 11.2% down 1.0%
First sales
5,955 sales
down 55.0% against September 2025, from 13,227
Resales
2,683 sales
down 23.0% against September 2025, from 3,485
Off plan
6,291 sales
down 53.4% against September 2025, from 13,488
Ready
2,347 sales
down 27.3% against September 2025, from 3,227
- First sales 5,955, 68.9%
- Resales 2,683, 31.1%
- Off plan 6,291, 72.8%
- Ready 2,347, 27.2%
355,197 apartment units are registered and not yet finished, as read on 13 October 2026. That is the count now, not at the close of the month. Taken together they are 14 percent built.
| Largest pipelines | Units | Built |
|---|---|---|
| Jumeirah Village Circle (Al Barsha South Fourth) | 30,775 | 17% |
| Dubai World Central (Madinat Al Mataar) | 30,762 | 9% |
| Business Bay | 22,051 | 20% |
| Dubai Land Residence Complex (Wadi Al Safa 5) | 19,576 | 5% |
| Dubai Maritime City (Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah) | 14,680 | 9% |
Why apartment sales may have moved.
Fewer sales and lower prices.
3 things happened at once that may each explain part of this move. 2 more are shown in other sections.
- Economy
Lower tourism and hospitality activity
This might be caused by lower tourism and hospitality activity (visitor numbers and hotel demand) (5).
Sales and prices moved as it predicts, and the parts it should reach moved most.
How we knowHow we know
This might be caused by lower tourism and hospitality activity (visitor numbers and hotel demand).
This may account for part of it, and so may other things
- Source
- Gulf News
- Tier
- Established press
- Happened
- Not recorded
- Reported
- 30 Jun 2026
- Read by us
- Not recorded
- Agreement
- 1 independent publisher
- What would change our mind
- Villas and family homes moved by the same amount (visitors do not rent 4-bedroom family homes).
- Came before the move: Passed. Reported 3 months before the move, inside the 1 to 12 month window this kind of factor is expected to take. The order of events works.
- Pushes the way the market moved: Passed. The market moved down and this factor pushes the same way.
- Fits which side of the market moved: Passed. Sales and prices together moved exactly the way this factor should move them (volume down, price down).
- Hits the parts it should hit hardest: Passed. The parts of the market this should reach moved more than the parts it should not. The gap was 9.1. That is what this factor predicts.
- Large enough for a move this size: Passed. It can move the market by 6 percent at most; same-homes apartment and villa prices moved 1.15 percent, so it is large enough to matter.
- Has done this here before: Passed. We have no recorded case of this happening here before, so there is no track record either way. That is not evidence against it.
- Rents
Lower market rents
This might be caused by lower market rents (tenants paying less) (6).
Sales and prices moved as it predicts.
How we knowHow we know
This might be caused by lower market rents (tenants paying less).
This may account for part of it, and so may other things
- Source
- Gulf News
- Tier
- Established press
- Happened
- Not recorded
- Reported
- 29 Jul 2026
- Read by us
- Not recorded
- Agreement
- 1 independent publisher
- What would change our mind
- Rent as a share of price moved a lot, so prices moved apart from rents rather than with them.
- Came before the move: Passed. Reported 2 months before the move, inside the 1 to 18 month window this kind of factor is expected to take. The order of events works.
- Pushes the way the market moved: Passed. The market moved down and this factor pushes the same way.
- Fits which side of the market moved: Passed. Sales and prices together moved exactly the way this factor should move them (volume down, price down).
- Hits the parts it should hit hardest: Not measured. This month's figures do not split the market by apartment, plot, offplan. We could not check whether it hit where it should.
- Large enough for a move this size: Not measured. How large a move this factor can produce depends on how far the factor itself moved. This month's reporting does not say. We could not check whether it is big enough.
- Has done this here before: Passed. We have no recorded case of this happening here before, so there is no track record either way. That is not evidence against it.
- Economy
A weaker non-oil economy
This might be caused by a weaker non-oil economy (business outside oil growing more slowly) (5).
Sales and prices moved as it predicts.
How we knowHow we know
This might be caused by a weaker non-oil economy (business outside oil growing more slowly).
This may account for part of it, and so may other things
- Source
- Gulf News
- Tier
- Established press
- Happened
- Not recorded
- Reported
- 30 Jun 2026
- Read by us
- Not recorded
- Agreement
- 1 independent publisher
- What would change our mind
- Rents did not move at all (a change in incomes reaches rents first).
- Came before the move: Passed. Reported 3 months before the move, inside the 3 to 24 month window this kind of factor is expected to take. The order of events works.
- Pushes the way the market moved: Passed. The market moved down and this factor pushes the same way.
- Fits which side of the market moved: Passed. Sales and prices together moved exactly the way this factor should move them (volume down, price down).
- Hits the parts it should hit hardest: Not measured. This month's figures do not split the market by apartment. We could not check whether it hit where it should.
- Large enough for a move this size: Not measured. How large a move this factor can produce depends on how far the factor itself moved. This month's reporting does not say. We could not check whether it is big enough.
- Has done this here before: Passed. We have no recorded case of this happening here before, so there is no track record either way. That is not evidence against it.
Villa
1,428 sales of villa property registered for Residential use in September 2026. Median price AED 1,637 per square foot.
- Against September 2025down 36.8% up 5.7%
- Against August 2026up 7.4% down 1.3%
Resales
893 sales
down 21.7% against September 2025, from 1,141
First sales
535 sales
down 52.2% against September 2025, from 1,120
Off plan
805 sales
down 43.7% against September 2025, from 1,429
Ready
623 sales
down 25.1% against September 2025, from 832
- Resales 893, 62.5%
- First sales 535, 37.5%
- Off plan 805, 56.4%
- Ready 623, 43.6%
Residential, commercial and other uses, counted rather than read one by one
| Kind of property | Records, September 2026 | Against August 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Registered for Residential use, other than apartments and villas | 617 | up 4.4% |
| Hotel Apartment | 264 | down 17.2% |
| Office | 240 | up 28.3% |
| Retail | 113 | up 32.9% |
| Registered for Commercial use | 233 | up 38.7% |
| Office | 184 | up 48.4% |
| Smaller groups: Land, Building and Retail | 49 | |
| Registered for Other use | 97 | up 18.3% |
| Land | 74 | up 2.8% |
| Smaller groups: Building | 23 |
A blank entry: not available for this period.
Each group's first line is its total, and the lines beneath it add up to that total. These are other kinds of property, or uses where other property makes up most of the records. They are counted here, not given a section of their own.
The 10 largest sales recorded in September 2026
| Project | Community | Type | Price | Size (square feet) | Price per square foot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EOME | Palm Jumeirah | Villa | AED 260.0 million | 26,552 | 9,792 |
| DUBAI HILLS - HILLS VIEW | Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid | Villa | AED 252.0 million | 34,188 | 7,371 |
| Emirates Hills | Al Thanayah Fourth | Villa | AED 127.5 million | 42,071 | 3,031 |
| Palm Jumeirah | Palm Jumeirah | Villa | AED 110.0 million | 14,686 | 7,490 |
| DUBAI HILLS - HILLS VIEW | Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid | Villa | AED 100.0 million | 41,346 | 2,419 |
| LANAI Island | Al Hebiah Fourth | Villa | AED 91.0 million | 25,302 | 3,598 |
| Dubai Hills - Hills View Community | Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid | Villa | AED 80.0 million | 26,219 | 3,051 |
| Palm Jumeirah | Palm Jumeirah | Villa | AED 71.5 million | 14,682 | 4,870 |
| Como Residences | Palm Jumeirah | Apartment | AED 71.2 million | 11,712 | 6,083 |
| Villa in Al Barsha First | Al Barsha First | Villa | AED 70.0 million | 93,751 | 747 |
The largest residential sales the register recorded in the month. Project and community are printed as the register holds them. No sale is left out for being unusual, and price divided by size gives the last column, so any row can be checked against itself.
Rents
65,203 leases of every type in every use in September 2026. Median annual rent AED 80 per square foot.
- Against September 2025down 12.3% up 1.8%
- Against August 2026up 7.2% up 2.3%
Residential
54,879 leases of every type registered for Residential use in September 2026. Median annual rent AED 79 per square foot.
- Against September 2025down 9.5% up 4.7%
- Against August 2026up 5.8% up 2.9%
These figures count apartments and villas in every use the register records them under (Residential and Commercial), so they differ from the register's Residential line.
Moving in against staying put
| Lease | Median rent (AED) | Median, one year | Same homes, one year | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New lease | 73,000 | down 2.7% | down 6.26% | 28,238 |
| Renewal | 65,000 | up 1.6% | up 4.01% | 27,689 |
What a new tenant pays over a sitting one: 17.2% a year ago, 12.3% now.
Other property types ("Penthouse", "Hotel Apartment" and "Office"): 10 leases, not shown separately.
Apartment, registered for Residential use
49,002 leases of apartment property registered for Residential use in September 2026. Median annual rent AED 80 per square foot.
- Against September 2025down 10.0% up 4.0%
- Against August 2026up 6.8% up 3.0%
New
24,759 leases
up 9.2% against September 2025, from 22,676
Renewal
24,243 leases
down 23.6% against September 2025, from 31,750
- New 24,759, 50.5%
- Renewal 24,243, 49.5%
Villa, registered for Residential use
5,867 leases of villa property registered for Residential use in September 2026. Median annual rent AED 67 per square foot.
- Against September 2025down 5.0% up 6.0%
- Against August 2026down 1.2% up 0.5%
New
3,154 leases
up 16.9% against September 2025, from 2,699
Renewal
2,713 leases
down 21.9% against September 2025, from 3,474
- New 3,154, 53.8%
- Renewal 2,713, 46.2%
Residential and commercial uses, counted rather than read one by one
| Kind of property | Records, September 2026 | Against August 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Registered for Residential use, other than apartments and villas | 10 | |
| Smaller groups: Penthouse, Hotel Apartment and Office | 10 | |
| Registered for Commercial use | 10,324 | up 15.4% |
| Office | 5,975 | up 25.2% |
| Retail | 2,818 | down 0.5% |
| Apartment | 1,033 | up 6.8% |
| Hotel Apartment | 473 | up 37.5% |
| Smaller groups: Villa | 25 |
A blank entry: not available for this period.
Each group's first line is its total, and the lines beneath it add up to that total. These are other kinds of property, or uses where other property makes up most of the records. They are counted here, not given a section of their own.
What it means for developers, investors and others
Developer
- Off plan contract volumes contracted faster than completed resales as buyers showed greater caution around future delivery schedules.
- A single large builder captures an expanding portion of transactions, leaving independent builders competing for a smaller share of buyers.
Investor
- New tenancy rents softened while renewal rents moved higher, narrowing the rental premium achieved between new and existing tenants.
- Sale prices held up better than fresh rents, causing initial rental returns to compress across newly acquired properties.
Analyst
- Headline price trends mask deeper softening across the market when excluding the primary developer from the same-homes price measure.
- Villa capital values and apartment prices moved in opposite directions, highlighting divergent conditions across property types.
How PropertyDynamix clarifies the market
We provide objective property pricing intelligence directly from official government transactions.
- We read the government registry directly to capture every registered contract as it records.
- We separate genuine price changes from changes in mix using matched-group analysis.
- We publish figures adjusted for concentration to show trends outside dominant developers.
- MOIRA answers specific questions about any building or community with complete working shown.
This review is built the way our platform works every day: MOIRA, our market intelligence assistant, answers questions about any building or community in Dubai with the working shown; the Market Terminal puts the registry behind every figure here at your fingertips; and pricing tools turn it into unit-by-unit pricing. Start free or read every edition.
What MOIRA expects next
LOW CONFIDENCE
MOIRA is the engine that read the registry behind every figure above. What follows is a projection from that evidence, not a record of it.
Sales volume into October 2026 leans toward mixed activity as seasonal patterns show wide historical variation. The Central Bank of the UAE kept its base rate at 3.65 percent, reported by Gulf News on 29 July 2026. A softer dollar index at 99.65 offers currency support for overseas buyers, reported by Gulf News on 19 August 2026. Deliveries reach around 32,000 residential units in the second half of 2026, reported by Khaleej Times on 20 August 2026. Regional shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz keep international buyers cautious, reported by Al Jazeera on 20 August 2026. The leading contributor held 36.6 percent of apartment and villa sales. Same-homes prices excluding the leading contributor fell 5.42 percent.
In plain words. The property market looks mixed heading into October. Total apartment and villa sales reached 10,066 deals, but prices for matching homes fell 5.42 percent outside the largest seller. Steady interest rates and new handovers mean buyers and renters face more choices ahead.
Market sentiment: Weak, 23 of 100 (measured from 5 registry figures: 1 rose, 4 fell, 0 steady; outside conditions moved it up 3). The score is measured from the period itself: five registry figures, each counting plus one when it rose on the year, minus one when it fell, and zero inside a deadband so rounding cannot vote. Outside conditions the review weighed adjust that reading by at most ten points either way, so the same period scores the same however it is written up.
| What we weighed | Ground | Leans | On what evidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Same-homes price contraction | registry | restraining | same-homes prices excluding the leading contributor fell 5.42 percent | Dubai Land Department register |
| Autumn calendar shift | seasonality | supportive | September averages 9.95 percent of annual sales across three years | Dubai Land Department register |
| Second half completion wave | supply | restraining | around 32,000 residential units expected to be handed over in H2 2026, reported by Khaleej Times on 20 August 2026 | Khaleej Times on 20 August 2026 |
| Unchanged central bank base rate | financing | mixed | the central bank kept the base rate at 3.65 percent, reported by Gulf News on 29 July 2026 | Gulf News on 29 July 2026 |
| Dollar index softening | macro | supportive | the dollar index slipped to 99.65, reported by Gulf News on 19 August 2026 | (7) |
| Strait of Hormuz memorandum expiration | geopolitical | restraining | oil flows dropped after the memorandum expired without a replacement, reported by Al Jazeera on 20 August 2026 | (8) |
| Off plan bank financing expansion | policy | supportive | banks agreed to finance up to 75 percent of project costs before handover | (9) |
| Dubai population expansion | demand | supportive | population reached 4.74 million by end of June 2026, reported by The National on 4 August 2026 | (10) |
| Fortnightly outlook model run | model | mixed | the model's own gate refused this horizon | the outlook model run of 1 October 2026 |
This outlook represents a projection rather than a firm forecast. Major off plan project launches or policy adjustments can alter future market direction.
Methodology and assumptions
- What we read. Dubai Land Department registrations for September 2026, as recorded by 13 October 2026: 11,013 sales and 65,203 leases.
- How the sections are cut. By the register's own labels, in this order: 1. the register: sales, then leases; 2. what the property is used for, as the register records it; 3. the type of property, as the register records it; 4. off plan or ready for a sale, new or renewed for a lease. The biggest groups come first. A group with too few records to read on its own is counted with the rest rather than read alone.
- Prices. A few sales far above or below the rest are left out of prices but kept in counts. Apartment prices use built area and villa prices use plot area, so the two are not compared.
- Who sold. Sales are split as the register files them. For September 2026: 6,490 first sales and 3,576 resales. First sales are homes the register records as sold for the first time, usually by their developer. The register often records an off plan home resold before it is built the same way, so some are resales. Resales are homes the register records as sold on by an owner after their first sale. Same-homes prices are matched by property type, bedroom count and kind of sale, so a shift from one kind of sale to another cannot move them.
- How we compare. Each figure is compared with August 2026 and September 2025.
- How reasons are weighed. First the register's own figures are asked, in this order: 1. Is the register still filling, or has it restated a period it already printed? 2. Did prices move, or did the mix of homes sold move? 3. Is the comparison distorted by the calendar? 4. Is the move larger than this market's ordinary variation? Each answer can end the question. Only what is left goes to dated news. Each report faces these checks, in order: 1. Came before the move. 2. Pushes the way the market moved. 3. Fits which side of the market moved. 4. Hits the parts it should hit hardest. 5. Large enough for a move this size. 6. Has done this here before. A report from after the move cannot explain it, so the first check decides alone. A check we cannot run is left out, never counted as zero. The likelihood words are stored with this edition, so they never change later.
MOIRA read 11,013 sales and 65,203 leases registered with the Dubai Land Department for September 2026. It checked 44 dated news reports from 8 publishers, and tested 14 possible explanations: 5 fit, 4 did not and 5 could not be measured.
Read on. Every monthly edition · Previous edition: August 2026 · Q3 2026 edition · How the review is made
How these figures were checked
3 earlier figures updated since we first printed them
| Month | Measure | First recorded | Recorded now | Against usual late registrations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | Apartment and villa sales | 10,852 | 11,056 | |
| August 2026 | Total value, AED billion | 22.02 | 24.00 | No pattern for this measure |
| August 2026 | Median price per square foot, AED | 1,708 | 1,714 | No pattern for this measure |
A blank entry: not available for this period.
What would change our mind
- Lower tourism and hospitality activity (5): Villas and family homes moved by the same amount (visitors do not rent 4-bedroom family homes).
- Fewer new projects going on sale (1): The number of new projects going on sale was normal.
- Lower market rents (6): Rent as a share of price moved a lot, so prices moved apart from rents rather than with them.
- A weaker currency in buyers' home countries (2): That nationality's share of buyers did not move.
- A weaker non-oil economy (5): Rents did not move at all (a change in incomes reaches rents first).
These fit, but how much each accounts for could not be measured.
- More completion delays (homes finishing later than scheduled) (3)
- People and money moving here from abroad (wealthy households relocating to Dubai and buying homes) (4)
- More new homes finished at once (3)
- Tighter rent rules (rules on how much rents may rise) (11)
- The region feeling less risky (4)
The causes weighed above also fit other moves. Homes repriced, and the mix added to it: 10 of them. A larger move than usual: 10 of them. Home sizes moved by very different amounts: 10 of them. Prices ran ahead of rents: 7 of them.
No dated report was weighed against rents on their own this month.
Prices ran ahead of rents: 1 chart for September 2026
Prices for the same kinds of home fell 1.15 percent while new-lease rents fell 6.26 percent, a gap of 5.11 percentage points (the difference between the two percentages). Prices held up better than what a home earns from letting, so each dirham of rent now costs more to buy.
Median residential sales price and rate by area: shown under "Sales".
One to put to your own figures: How did your rental income compare with the change in sales prices across your local area this month?
1 check not measured this edition.
- Median residential lease rate and rent by area: not measured (its 127 figures run from 5 to 204 AED per sq ft and 1 sits far outside the rest, more spread than one measure of the same thing can credibly hold, so it is held back rather than printed)
5 checks we ran on September 2026
Before this report offers any reason for a move, it checks the register and then the month's own figures. Each one can end the question, and when one does we say so instead of reaching for a story.
The sections follow the register's own labels, in this order: 1. The register: sales, then leases. 2. What the property is used for, as the register records it. 3. The type of property, as the register records it. 4. Off plan or ready for a sale, new or renewed for a lease. This period gave 8 sections. 3 groups too thin to read alone are counted with the rest (10 records). 12 groups outside the review's own types of property are counted in one table.
Whether the register had finished filling.
Nothing here needs a reason- Between 26 August 2026 and 13 October 2026, 2,072 sale records dated in earlier months reached the register, against 3,564 to 6,487 expected from how 1 earlier month filled. Fewer arrived than the pattern expects: figures for those months may still move when the rest arrive, or the register, or our copy of it, fell behind.
- 3 earlier figures changed since first published, each within what late registrations explain or with no fill pattern to judge by.
Price change against the mix of homes sold.
Needs a reason, weighed above- Homes repriced, and the mix added to it. The headline price fell 1.2 percent. Homes themselves repriced by 1.1 percent, on the same-homes measure. That measure compares this month with the same month last year, for the same types and sizes of home, sold the same way. A change in what sold cannot move it. The rest was a change in which homes sold.
The calendar and the comparison.
Nothing here needs a reason- Neither September 2026 nor September 2025 includes Ramadan, so the comparison with last year is not distorted by it.
- Part of the change against last month is the number of open days. The month had 22 working days against 21 the month before. About 4.8 percent of any change in the raw count is the calendar rather than the market.
The move against this market's ordinary variation.
Needs a reason, weighed above- A larger move than usual. Sales fell 9.0 percent against the month before. That is the 6th largest change in the last 1 year, so it is worth asking what sat behind it.
Outside explanations for what is left.
10 offered, 4 ruled out
Explanations we checked and rejected. We weighed 14 candidate explanations against this month's figures. 4 did not fit, and this is the one a reader is most likely to have already had in mind.
- A lower property value threshold for the visa (a new price threshold for residency changes what buyers aim for). This factor pushes up and the market went the other way. That is evidence against it.
Possible explanations are scored against our published factor library, version 1.2.0.
How to read the likelihood: "might be caused by" means the evidence here supports it up to about 65 percent. That is a ceiling set by the kind of evidence a cause rests on, not a measurement of each cause. Causes worded alike are not ranked against each other. These limits were set before the period began and are not yet checked against how earlier explanations held up.
How our method changed, in 1 note
- This run checked 0 past explanations against the register. Across every earlier edition, 160 explanations carry a test written in words the register cannot check.
How these figures were made, in 6 notes
Coverage. Figures cover residential apartment and villa sales registered by the Dubai Land Department. September 2026 as recorded by 13 October 2026, while comparisons use earlier months as recorded now. sale records had not arrived since 5 October 2026, 8 days before this reading. This was a longer pause than any earlier one (the longest was 6 days).
Prices. Outliers (sales far above or below the rest) are excluded from price calculations but remain included in transaction counts. Published median prices require at least 30 transactions in a period. Villa prices are calculated on plot area while apartment prices use built area.
Rentals. Leases reach the register weeks after they begin, so the September 2026 count of 55,927 contracts is what had been registered by the run. Registered contracts reached 89.8 percent of the prior-year month. A rent level is the middle rent with half above and half below, compared with the same month last year.
Attribution. Untagged sales with no recorded bedroom count represented 0.3 percent of transactions in September 2026, identical to 0.3 percent last year. Size band shares are calculated exclusively on tagged transactions.
Off plan. Off plan figures combine developer first sales and under-construction resales registered in the same format. Historical transaction totals may adjust upward as delayed registrations are processed by the land department.
Beyond residential. The headline figures leave out Hotel Apartment, Office, Retail, Land and Building: 947 sales in September 2026. Each is reported apart, in its own section or in the counted groups. None is mixed into the headline figures or their prices.
1 table or chart no section above used
These figures count apartments and villas in every use the register records them under (Residential and Commercial), so they differ from the register's Residential line.
| Measure | A year ago | This month | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contracts registered | 62,288 | 55,927 | down 10.2% |
| Median annual rent (AED) | 69,776 | 69,806 | unchanged 0.0% |
| Median rent per square foot (AED) | 76 | 80 | up 4.1% |
| 1-bedroom, median (AED) | 60,000 | 61,239 | up 2.1% |
| 2-bedroom, median (AED) | 79,200 | 83,000 | up 4.8% |
| New contracts, share of leases | 41.5% | 50.5% |
A blank entry: not available for this period.
Leases reach the register weeks after they begin, so the September 2026 count of 55,927 contracts is what had been registered by the run and will rise over coming weeks. Registered contracts reached 89.8 percent of the prior-year month. Older months where registration has settled, such as June 2026 at 94.7 percent and February 2026 at 101.6 percent, show how completeness builds over time. Rent levels are medians of registered leases and are compared with the same month last year, so they are not distorted by registration timing.
Sources
| No. | Publisher | Title | Date | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Land Department | Sales and leases registers | Read 13 October 2026 | ||
| 1 | Khaleej Times | Full-year 2026 delivery forecast and construction progress | 20 August 2026 | Link |
| 2 | Khaleej Times | Indian rupee versus dirham | 4 June 2026 | Link |
| 3 | Khaleej Times | H1 2026 handovers and forward pipeline | 30 July 2026 | Link |
| 4 | AGBI | Foreign capital flows in Gulf equities | 17 August 2026 | Link |
| 5 | Gulf News | UAE GDP outlook | 30 June 2026 | Link |
| 6 | Gulf News | CBRE Q2 2026 rents and volumes | 29 July 2026 | Link |
| 7 | Gulf News | US dollar, sterling and euro | 19 August 2026 | Link |
| 8 | Al Jazeera | Memorandum expiry and Hormuz traffic | 20 August 2026 | Link |
| 9 | AGBI | Off plan mortgage financing shift | 23 July 2026 | Link |
| 10 | The National | Population | 4 August 2026 | Link |
| 11 | Khaleej Times | Rental index for shared housing units | 6 August 2026 | Link |
Also read, not used for a reason
| Publisher | Title | Date | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gulf News | Launch slowdown and H2 2026 delivery expectations | 30 July 2026 | Link |
| Khaleej Times | Q2 2026 launches and handovers | 16 July 2026 | Link |
| Khaleej Times | DLD completed projects H1 2026 | 20 August 2026 | Link |
| Khaleej Times | Completions versus schedule | 21 July 2026 | Link |
| AGBI | Construction costs and contractor capacity | 20 July 2026 | Link |
| The National | Contractor cost absorption and project schedules | 1 July 2026 | Link |
| Khaleej Times | ValuStrat VPI July 2026 | 12 August 2026 | Link |
| Khaleej Times | July ready vs off plan mix | 12 August 2026 | Link |
| Khaleej Times | ValuStrat June 2026 reading | 15 July 2026 | Link |
| Khaleej Times | Savills Q2 2026 handovers and launches | 16 July 2026 | Link |
| Khaleej Times | Q2 correction and H2 supply (Cushman & Wakefield Core) | 9 August 2026 | Link |
| US Federal Reserve | US Fed rate decision | 29 July 2026 | Link |
| Gulf News | CBUAE base rate | 29 July 2026 | Link |
| Gulf News | UAE and Dubai PMI, July | 5 August 2026 | Link |
| Al Jazeera | Global equities | 5 August 2026 | Link |
| Gulf News | Airline seat capacity | 3 August 2026 | Link |
| Gulf News | Tourism and hotels H1 2026 | 18 August 2026 | Link |
| Gulf News | Business formation (DIFC) | 28 July 2026 | Link |
| AGBI | Employment and hiring (PMI) | 6 August 2026 | Link |
| Gulf News | Developer-bank off plan mortgage terms | 29 July 2026 | Link |
| Gulf News | CBUAE base rate decision | 29 July 2026 | Link |
| Khaleej Times | Two-year property investor visa | 1 July 2026 | Link |
| Gulf News | First-Time Home Buyer Programme expansion | 8 June 2026 | Link |
| Gulf News | Shared housing law takes effect | 3 August 2026 | Link |
| AGBI | Dubai 2040 plan infrastructure milestone | 13 July 2026 | Link |
| Al Jazeera | US-Iran memorandum signed | 17 June 2026 | Link |
| The National | Hormuz closure and shipping collapse | 12 July 2026 | Link |
| The National | July escalation and Brent $90 | 20 July 2026 | Link |
| Khaleej Times | Dubai property reaction to renewed tensions | 16 July 2026 | Link |
| Knight Frank | Regional Wealth Hub Dynamics | 9 September 2026 | Link |
| Savills | Q2 Residential Transaction Volumes | 21 July 2026 | Link |
| Knight Frank | H1 Luxury Sales Milestone | 10 July 2026 | Link |
| Savills | Q2 Residential Pricing Levels | 21 July 2026 | Link |
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