Dubai Property Market Review July 2026

The same-homes measure, which the industry calls like for like, compares this month's prices against the same month last year for the same types and sizes of home so a change in what sold cannot move it, fell 4.93 percent in July 2026, even as the headline median price per square foot increased 2.7 percent to AED 1,712.

The month at a glance

Same-homes prices compare this month against the same month last year for the same types and sizes of home, so a change in what sold cannot move them. Both comparison columns are measured on the same filtered population, so they are directly comparable.

villas sold off plan were 30.2 percent of last year's value and account for 45.4 percent of the fall. Excluding them, value changed -40.6 percent.

Headline PSF Diverges from Same-Homes Pricing

Dubai residential pricing displayed an apparent contradiction in July 2026. While aggregate price per square foot registered a modest gain, underlying pricing across identical property categories weakened.

Leases reach the register weeks after they begin, so the July 2026 count of 47,707 contracts represents what had been registered by the run and will rise. July stands at 87.7 percent of its prior-year total, while older months such as February 2026 settled at 101.6 percent and March 2026 at 90.3 percent, showing that part of the year-on-year gap reflects registration lag. Rent levels are medians of registered leases and are compared with the same month a year earlier, so they are not distorted by registration timing in the way contract counts are.

Moving in against staying put (same-homes, mix adjusted)

What a new tenant pays over a sitting one: 19.0% a year ago, 9.3% now.

• The headline median price per square foot increased 2.7 percent to AED 1,712, even as the median transaction size shrank 12.8 percent from 838 square feet to 731 square feet.
• Across 9 matched property cells, same-homes prices fell 4.93 percent, revealing that the headline gain was caused by a higher concentration of smaller homes that trade at higher rates per square foot.
• When excluding a single developer that captured 25.9 percent of all transactions, same-homes prices fell 7.01 percent compared to the same period last year.
• ValuStrat reported in Khaleej Times that its Residential VPI fell 1.6 percent year on year and 0.3 percent month on month to 219.2 points, pointing toward market stabilization.

What it means. Buyers and lenders evaluating current market values must separate changes in asset pricing from changes in transaction mix, as aggregate indices overstate market strength by masking underlying price softening across matched property types.

Sales Volumes and Total Transacted Value Contract

Residential sales activity slowed markedly compared to the elevated levels recorded twelve months earlier. Total spending contracted at a faster rate than transaction counts.

• Total registered sales dropped 33.6 percent year on year to 12,422 transactions, although deal count edged up 4.1 percent compared to June 2026.
• Total transacted value fell 51.9 percent year on year to AED 24.11 billion from AED 50.08 billion, declining faster than sales volume because fewer high-value homes traded.
• Off plan villas accounted for 45.4 percent of the total value reduction despite representing 30.2 percent of prior-year value, as transactions in this segment dropped from 2,267 deals to 596 deals.
• Excluding off plan villas, total residential transacted value fell 40.6 percent rather than the headline 51.9 percent.
• Transactions above USD 10 million slipped 11.1 percent to 32 sales, reflecting softer activity at the top end of the market.

What it means. The sharp contraction in total market value reflects a compounding effect of lower sales volumes and an absence of large-ticket off plan villa registrations that heavily elevated the prior-year baseline.

Segment Performance Across Apartments and Villas

Price performance varied substantially between property types and bedroom categories during July. Larger apartment layouts recorded the steepest price reductions.

• Apartment prices per square foot, measured on built area, fell 1.5 percent to AED 1,723 across 11,215 sales.
• Villa prices, measured separately on plot area, rose 0.5 percent to AED 1,533 per square foot across 1,207 sales.

What it means. Capital values are fragmenting by layout size, with entry-level studios holding pricing better than multi-bedroom family apartments where buyers face higher absolute ticket sizes.

Market Share Concentrates in Single Contributor and Southern Hubs

Sales volume concentrated heavily within a single major builder and specific master communities. Buyer activity focused around emerging master developments.

• A single developer accounted for 25.9 percent of all residential sales with 3,219 transactions, up from an 8.9 percent market share in July 2025.
• Madinat Al Mataar led all locations in transacted value at AED 2.5 billion across 2,397 sales, representing 10.4 percent of the total residential market value at a median price of AED 1,709 per square foot.
• Palm Jumeirah generated AED 1.07 billion across 78 sales at a median price of AED 3,315 per square foot, capturing 4.4 percent of total transacted value.

What it means. Because one contributor generates over a quarter of all residential transactions, market-wide averages increasingly mirror the specific pricing and product strategy of that single developer.

Rental Premium Between New and Renewal Leases Narrows

Rental market dynamics showed diverging trajectories between new move-in tenancies and existing renewals. Total registered rental contracts moderated amid registration reporting patterns.

Apartment communities (built area)

Villa communities (plot area, not comparable with apartments)

• New tenancy registrations rose 2.1 percent to 21,435 contracts, expanding to 44.9 percent of all leases from 38.6 percent a year earlier.
• Same-homes rents for new leases fell 6.18 percent to AED 84.6 per square foot across 141 matched cells, while same-homes renewal rents rose 4.17 percent to AED 66.6 per square foot across 189 matched cells.
• The median rent gap between new leases and renewals narrowed to AED 5,950 or 9.3 percent, down from AED 12,000 or 19 percent in July 2025.

What it means. The narrowing gap between new and renewing tenancies indicates that statutory renewal index adjustments are catching up with open-market rates just as newly signed rents begin to ease.

Forward Pipeline Expands as Active Handover Volumes Grow

Dubai continues to log substantial project construction activity across primary expansion zones. Active projects show varied stages of construction progress.

379,855 apartment units are registered and not yet finished, at 18% average build progress.

• Cavendish Maxwell reported in Khaleej Times that Dubai delivered 24,800 new homes in H1 2026, a 37.6 percent increase over H1 2025, while 41.3 percent of units scheduled for H1 were completed.
• According to Cavendish Maxwell in Khaleej Times, roughly 47,000 units are slated for delivery in H2 2026, followed by 162,500 units in 2027 and 128,200 units in 2028.

What it means. With actual completion rates trailing initial schedules and substantial supply slated for delivery through 2028, handover execution timelines will heavily influence rental and resale vacancy in outer master communities.

The largest sales of the month

The largest residential sales the register recorded in the month. Project and community are printed as the register holds them. No sale is left out for being unusual, and price divided by size gives the last column, so any row can be checked against itself.

The rest of the register

The figures above cover apartments and villas. The register also records offices, shops, hotel apartments and land, and the leases signed on commercial space.

These medians rest on a few hundred deals rather than the many thousands behind the residential figures, so a large move in price per square foot can reflect what happened to sell. The counts and the total value are the firmer figures. Land is reported by count and value only: a plot's rate depends on what may be built on it, which the register does not record.

The figures in full

What this month changes, by who you are

Developer

• The expansion of off plan market share to 71.2 percent of sales shows buyer appetite remains concentrated in developer payment plans rather than secondary cash purchases.
• Steep price contractions in 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom apartments, falling 17.6 percent and 20.8 percent respectively, indicate weaker demand for large-format units relative to studios which rose 2 percent.
• With 379,855 unfinished units in the active registry and roughly 47,000 slated for H2 2026 delivery according to Cavendish Maxwell in Khaleej Times, project completion timing faces intensifying delivery competition.

Investor

• Same-homes rental rates for new move-in tenancies fell 6.18 percent to AED 84.6 PSF, pointing to softer initial yields on newly vacant properties.
• Renewal rents rose 4.17 percent to AED 66.6 PSF, compressing the rent gap over renewing tenants to AED 5,950 from AED 12,000 twelve months ago.
• Excluding the leading developer, same-homes capital values fell 7.01 percent, indicating that broader secondary market exit valuations are softening faster than headline metrics show.

Analyst

• Headline median PSF rose 2.7 percent while same-homes prices dropped 4.93 percent across 9 matched cells, demonstrating that the aggregate price gain is an artifact of median size shrinking 12.8 percent.
• A single developer capturing 25.9 percent of sales up from 8.9 percent means aggregate registry statistics are increasingly sensitive to that single entity's sales mix.
• Total transacted value fell 51.9 percent to AED 24.11 billion, driven heavily by off plan villas which accounted for 45.4 percent of the total value reduction.

How PropertyDynamix Clarifies the Market

We provide transparent property intelligence across Dubai and Abu Dhabi to help market participants look past headline distortions.

• We read the government Land Department registry directly, eliminating third-party reporting biases.
• We separate pure price movement from transaction mix changes using matched same-homes indexing.
• We publish concentration-adjusted figures to show how single developers and specific segments influence market totals.
• Our intelligence engine MOIRA answers questions about any building or community in plain English with all underlying data shown.

This review is built the way our platform works every day: MOIRA, our market intelligence assistant, answers questions about any building or community in Dubai with the working shown; the Market Terminal puts the registry behind every figure here at your fingertips; and pricing tools turn it into unit-by-unit pricing. Start free or read every monthly edition.

Method and limits

Coverage. These figures cover residential sales and rental contracts recorded by the Dubai Land Department for July 2026. Commercial property, industrial assets, and land transactions are excluded from these residential statistics. Land metrics are excluded due to the absence of standardized built area reporting in raw registry data.

Prices. Price statistics exclude extreme outlier transactions but retain all valid sales in volume counts. Published median prices per square foot require a minimum transaction threshold within each category. Villa prices are calculated on plot area while apartment prices use built area, meaning the two property types cannot be directly compared.

Rentals. Leases reach the register weeks after they begin, so the July 2026 count of 47,707 contracts represents what had been registered by the run and will rise later. The comparison month a year earlier is complete, meaning the 12.3 percent year on year count drop overstates the real decline. July stands at 87.7 percent of its prior-year total, while rent levels represent medians of registered leases compared against the same month last year.

Attribution. Untagged sales with no bedroom count recorded fell from 11.9 percent in July 2025 to 4.5 percent in July 2026, improving data coverage. Size shares and bedroom breakdowns are calculated exclusively on tagged transactions. Figures excluding the leading contributor are provided to show market distribution without single-entity weighting.

Off plan. An off plan resale registers in the same form as a developer first sale, so off plan figures cover both transaction types. Off plan sales accounted for 71.2 percent of count and 59.3 percent of value in July 2026. Published metrics for a closed calendar month do not change after publication.

Beyond residential. The headline figures cover apartments and villas only. Offices, shops, hotel apartments and land are reported separately, in their own section, and are never mixed into the residential figures or the price measures drawn from them.

The largest sales. Listed as the register recorded them. No sale is left out for being unusual, so one may sit outside the price statistics above, which exclude statistical outliers to protect a median. Project and community print as the register holds them rather than by a name resolved from anywhere else, and price, size and price per square foot are all shown so any row can be checked against itself.

Every figure in this review is drawn from Dubai Land Department registrations and checked mechanically before publication. Figures for a closed month do not change after publication.